Subject: Re: It's dead Jim
To: Alfred Pythonstein <pythonstein@hotmail.com>
From: Greg 'groggy' Lehey <grog@FreeBSD.org>
List: netbsd-advocacy
Date: 08/19/2002 09:31:54
On Sunday, 18 August 2002 at  7:23:31 -0700, Alfred Pythonstein wrote:
> Mad propz to Hiten 'imbecile' Pandya, btw...
>
> It is official -- Netcraft is now confirming: *BSD is dying

Mike, is that you?

> You don't need to be a Kreskin [amdest.com] to predict *BSD's future. The
> hand writing is on the wall: *BSD faces a bleak future. In fact there won't
> be any future at all for *BSD because *BSD is dying. Things are looking
> very bad for *BSD. As many of us are already aware, *BSD continues to lose
> market share. Red ink flows like a river of blood.
>
> FreeBSD is the most endangered of them all, having lost 93% of its core
> developers. The sudden and unpleasant departures of long time FreeBSD
> developers Jordan Hubbard and Mike Smith only serve to underscore the point
> more clearly. There can no longer be any doubt: FreeBSD is dying.
>
> Let's keep to the facts and look at the numbers.
>
> OpenBSD leader Theo states that there are 7000 users of OpenBSD. How many
> users of NetBSD are there? Let's see. The number of OpenBSD versus NetBSD
> posts on Usenet is roughly in ratio of 5 to 1. Therefore there are about
> 7000/5 = 1400 NetBSD users. BSD/OS posts on Usenet are about half of the
> volume of NetBSD posts. Therefore there are about 700 users of BSD/OS. A
> recent article put FreeBSD at about 80 percent of the *BSD market.
> Therefore there are (7000+1400+700)*4 = 36400 FreeBSD users. This is
> consistent with the number of FreeBSD Usenet posts.
>
> Due to the troubles of Walnut Creek, abysmal sales and so on, FreeBSD went
> out of business and was taken over by BSDI who sell another troubled OS.
> Now BSDI is also dead, its corpse turned over to yet another charnel house.
>
> All major surveys show that *BSD has steadily declined in market share.
> *BSD is very sick and its long term survival prospects are very dim. If
> *BSD is to survive at all it will be among OS dilettante dabblers. *BSD
> continues to decay. Nothing short of a miracle could save it at this point
> in time. For all practical purposes, *BSD is dead.
>
> Fact: *BSD is dying

Fact: this claim is over a year old.

On Sunday, 22 April 2001 at 14:44:28 -0700, Mike Cheponis wrote:
> Seen on slashdot today:
> http://slashdot.org/comments.pl?sid=01/04/22/0056207&threshold=-1&commentsort=0&mode=thread&pid=80
>
> "We should all keep in mind this simple truth: *BSD is dying.
>
> You don't need to be Kreskin to predict *BSD's future. The hand
> writing is on the wall: *BSD faces a bleak future. In fact there
> won't be any future at all for *BSD because *BSD is dying. Things are
> looking very bad for *BSD. As many of us are already aware, *BSD
> continues to lose market share. Red ink flows like a river of blood.
>
> Let's keep to the facts and look at the numbers.
>
> OpenBSD leader Theo states that there are 7000 users of OpenBSD. How
> many users of NetBSD are there? Let's see. The number of OpenBSD
> versus NetBSD posts on Usenet is roughly in ratio of 5 to
> 1. Therefore there are about 7000/5 = 1400 NetBSD users. BSD/OS posts
> on Usenet are about half of the volume of NetBSD posts. Therefore
> there are about 700 users of BSD/OS. A recent article put FreeBSD at
> about 80 percent of the *BSD market. Therefore there are
> (7000+1400+700)*4 = 36400 FreeBSD users. This is consistent with the
> number of FreeBSD Usenet posts.
>
> Due to the troubles of Walnut Creek, abysmal sales and so on,
> FreeBSD went out of business and was taken over by BSDI who sell
> another troubled OS. Now BSDI is also dead, its corpse turned over to
> another charnel house.
>
> All major surveys show that *BSD has steadily declined in market
> share. *BSD is very sick and its long term survival prospects are
> very dim. If *BSD is to survive at all it will be among OS hobbyists,
> dabblers, and dilettantes. *BSD continues to decay. Nothing short of
> a miracle could save it at this point in time. For all practical
> purposes, *BSD is dead. "

Fact: trolls are facing hard times.

Fact: trolls are dying.  This one is dead, but hasn't noticed it yet.

Greg
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